Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Santibanez
Reynaldo Trujillo
91%
9%
Why
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Jose Santibanez
Reynaldo Trujillo
48
Sig strikes landed
45
114
Sig strikes attempted
113
71
Total strikes landed
61
3.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
159s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jose Santibanez
0-0
Career record
Age
31
Blue corner
Reynaldo Trujillo
"The Truth"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
29