Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Adam Schindler
Kier Gooch
81%
19%
Why
27
Age
Δ 3y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Adam Schindler
Kier Gooch
40
Sig strikes landed
36
104
Sig strikes attempted
101
51
Total strikes landed
43
1.0
Takedowns landed
3.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
126s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Adam Schindler
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
27
Blue corner
Kier Gooch
0-0
Career record
Age
24