Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Vinicius Magalhaes
Rocky Long
93%
7%
Why
39
Age
Δ 7y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vinicius Magalhaes
Rocky Long
45
Sig strikes landed
47
96
Sig strikes attempted
106
62
Total strikes landed
65
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.2
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.80
170s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Vinicius Magalhaes
"Draculinho"
0-0
Career record
Age
39
Blue corner
Rocky Long
0-0
Career record
Age
33