Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Andre Galvao
Jorge Patino
35%
65%
Why
28
Age
Δ 9y
37
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Galvao: 53 sig / 4 TD ·
Patino: 14 sig / 0 TD
Andre Galvao
Jorge Patino
32
Sig strikes landed
36
76
Sig strikes attempted
72
42
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
100s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Andre Galvao
6-2
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 7
—
Blue corner
Jorge Patino
"Macaco"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37