Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniel Cormier
Jason Riley
96%
4%
Why
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cormier: 10 sig / 1 TD ·
Riley: 0 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Cormier
Jason Riley
35
Sig strikes landed
28
90
Sig strikes attempted
73
59
Total strikes landed
29
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.60
Knockdowns
0.30
137s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Daniel Cormier
"DC"
23-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 7
—
Blue corner
Jason Riley
"The Juggernaut"
0-0
Career record
Height
78"
Age
35