Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
KJ Noons
Jorge Gurgel
66%
34%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Noons: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Gurgel: 17 sig / 0 TD
KJ Noons
Jorge Gurgel
54
Sig strikes landed
42
131
Sig strikes attempted
99
60
Total strikes landed
54
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
107s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
KJ Noons
"King"
14-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Los Angeles
—
Blue corner
Jorge Gurgel
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34