Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tim Kennedy
Jacare Souza
44%
56%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
19-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
27-10
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Kennedy: 69 sig / 2 TD ·
Souza: 47 sig / 0 TD
Tim Kennedy
Jacare Souza
14
Sig strikes landed
19
29
Sig strikes attempted
29
35
Total strikes landed
42
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.8
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
204s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tim Kennedy
19-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Los Angeles
—
Blue corner
W1
Jacare Souza
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—