Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Muhammed Lawal
Rafael Cavalcante
89%
11%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
30
Age
Δ 1y
30
22-6
Career record
Δ 14 pp
13-7
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lawal: 54 sig / 2 TD ·
Cavalcante: 39 sig / 0 TD
Muhammed Lawal
Rafael Cavalcante
32
Sig strikes landed
24
146
Sig strikes attempted
65
63
Total strikes landed
38
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
308s
Control time
40s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Muhammed Lawal
"King Mo"
22-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Nashville
—
Blue corner
W1
Rafael Cavalcante
"Feijao"
13-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—