Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nate Diaz
Marcus Davis
75%
25%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
25
Age
Δ 12y
37
23-13
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-11
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Diaz: 94 sig / 1 TD ·
Davis: 52 sig / 1 TD
Nate Diaz
Marcus Davis
41
Sig strikes landed
42
179
Sig strikes attempted
96
63
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
99s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
49%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nate Diaz
23-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Marcus Davis
"The Irish Hand Grenade"
23-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—