Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Lauzon
Gabe Ruediger
71%
29%
Why
26
Age
Δ 7y
33
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lauzon: 19 sig / 2 TD ·
Ruediger: 1 sig / 0 TD
Joe Lauzon
Gabe Ruediger
32
Sig strikes landed
34
80
Sig strikes attempted
74
53
Total strikes landed
52
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
172s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joe Lauzon
28-17
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
Gabe Ruediger
"Godzilla"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33