Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kenny Florian
Gray Maynard
67%
33%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
15-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
14-7-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Florian: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Maynard: 15 sig / 5 TD
Kenny Florian
Gray Maynard
53
Sig strikes landed
47
134
Sig strikes attempted
126
60
Total strikes landed
51
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
132s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kenny Florian
"KenFlo"
15-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
W1
Gray Maynard
14-7-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—