Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Dan Miller
John Salter
38%
62%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
29
Age
Δ 4y
25
14-9
Career record
Δ 22 pp
15-3
L2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Miller: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Salter: 21 sig / 2 TD
Dan Miller
John Salter
31
Sig strikes landed
36
69
Sig strikes attempted
93
35
Total strikes landed
58
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
74s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
52%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Dan Miller
14-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
W1
John Salter
15-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—