Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Nick Osipczak
Greg Soto
54%
46%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
26
Age
Δ 2y
24
6-4
Career record
Δ 4 pp
9-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Osipczak: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Soto: 70 sig / 3 TD
Nick Osipczak
Greg Soto
26
Sig strikes landed
28
47
Sig strikes attempted
42
48
Total strikes landed
49
1.7
Takedowns landed
2.5
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
164s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Nick Osipczak
6-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
L1
Greg Soto
9-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—