Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Andre Winner
Nik Lentz
29%
71%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
68"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
22-11-2
Career record
Δ 6 pp
31-12-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Winner: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Lentz: 23 sig / 7 TD
Andre Winner
Nik Lentz
47
Sig strikes landed
53
125
Sig strikes attempted
133
70
Total strikes landed
67
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.6
1.0
Takedowns attempted
6.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
66s
Control time
228s
Method
Decision
83%
KO/TKO
7%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Andre Winner
22-11-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
W1
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
31-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—