Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mike Pierce
Amilcar Alves
63%
37%
Why
30
Age
Δ 8y
22
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Pierce: 31 sig / 4 TD ·
Alves: 4 sig / 0 TD
Mike Pierce
Amilcar Alves
26
Sig strikes landed
24
47
Sig strikes attempted
53
54
Total strikes landed
42
3.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.3
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
307s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mike Pierce
18-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
Amilcar Alves
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22