Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Mario Miranda
69%
31%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
28-12
Career record
Δ 2 pp
15-7
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maia: 30 sig / 5 TD ·
Miranda: 14 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Mario Miranda
22
Sig strikes landed
23
51
Sig strikes attempted
54
48
Total strikes landed
46
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.3
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
174s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Demian Maia
28-12
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
W1
Mario Miranda
15-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—