Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Randy Couture
James Toney
70%
30%
Why
47
Age
Δ 5y
42
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Couture: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Toney: 0 sig / 0 TD
Randy Couture
James Toney
37
Sig strikes landed
24
67
Sig strikes attempted
60
58
Total strikes landed
36
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
169s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Randy Couture
"The Natural"
20-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
47
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
James Toney
"Lights Out"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42