Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Frankie Edgar
BJ Penn
85%
15%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
24-11-1
Career record
Δ 18 pp
16-15-2
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Edgar: 94 sig / 3 TD ·
Penn: 36 sig / 2 TD
Frankie Edgar
BJ Penn
94
Sig strikes landed
75
236
Sig strikes attempted
189
93
Total strikes landed
85
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.50
85s
Control time
35s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
L1
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16-15-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—