Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Chad Mendes
66%
34%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
—
Current streak
W2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Swanson: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Mendes: 17 sig / 8 TD
Cub Swanson
Chad Mendes
18
Sig strikes landed
24
43
Sig strikes attempted
45
37
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
3.1
0.5
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
129s
Control time
281s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
40%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Cub Swanson
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
W2
Chad Mendes
"Money"
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—