Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shane Roller
Anthony Pettis
25%
75%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
31
Age
Δ 8y
24
12-7
Career record
Δ 8 pp
25-10
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Roller: 16 sig / 2 TD ·
Pettis: 37 sig / 2 TD
Shane Roller
Anthony Pettis
12
Sig strikes landed
20
24
Sig strikes attempted
49
24
Total strikes landed
45
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.00
Knockdowns
0.70
203s
Control time
207s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
64%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Shane Roller
12-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
Blue corner
W2
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
25-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—