Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Scott Jorgensen
Brad Pickett
42%
58%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
16-12
Career record
Δ 8 pp
26-14
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jorgensen: 84 sig / 4 TD ·
Pickett: 45 sig / 0 TD
Scott Jorgensen
Brad Pickett
36
Sig strikes landed
31
76
Sig strikes attempted
112
45
Total strikes landed
57
1.2
Takedowns landed
2.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
64s
Control time
212s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Scott Jorgensen
"Young Guns"
16-12
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
W1
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
26-14
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—