Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Ricardo Lamas
Dave Jansen
55%
45%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
21-8
Career record
Δ 8 pp
20-5
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lamas: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Jansen: 28 sig / 5 TD
Ricardo Lamas
Dave Jansen
40
Sig strikes landed
28
113
Sig strikes attempted
133
62
Total strikes landed
39
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ricardo Lamas
"The Bully"
21-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
L1
Dave Jansen
20-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—