Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Javier Vazquez
Mackens Semerzier
69%
31%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
17-5
Career record
Δ 16 pp
8-5
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Vazquez: 23 sig / 2 TD ·
Semerzier: 2 sig / 0 TD
Javier Vazquez
Mackens Semerzier
24
Sig strikes landed
21
55
Sig strikes attempted
45
54
Total strikes landed
24
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.3
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
211s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Javier Vazquez
"Showtime"
17-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
L1
Mackens Semerzier
"Da Menace"
8-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—