Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Fredson Paixao
Bryan Caraway
34%
66%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
11-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-10
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Paixao: 40 sig / 1 TD ·
Caraway: 36 sig / 3 TD
Fredson Paixao
Bryan Caraway
29
Sig strikes landed
17
46
Sig strikes attempted
45
53
Total strikes landed
50
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
170s
Control time
227s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Fredson Paixao
11-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
L1
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
21-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—