Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Danny Castillo
Dustin Poirier
17%
83%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
31
Age
Δ 9y
22
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Castillo: 32 sig / 3 TD ·
Poirier: 8 sig / 0 TD
Danny Castillo
Dustin Poirier
19
Sig strikes landed
33
42
Sig strikes attempted
64
33
Total strikes landed
53
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
147s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22