Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Dominick Cruz
Joseph Benavidez
54%
46%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
65"
25
Age
Δ 1y
26
25-4
Career record
Δ 8 pp
29-8
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Cruz: 58 sig / 6 TD ·
Benavidez: 35 sig / 0 TD
Dominick Cruz
Joseph Benavidez
29
Sig strikes landed
24
76
Sig strikes attempted
65
45
Total strikes landed
37
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
117s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
50%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dominick Cruz
"The Dominator"
25-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
W1
Joseph Benavidez
29-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—