Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Fitch
Thiago Alves
82%
18%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
32
Age
Δ 6y
27
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Fitch: 29 sig / 9 TD ·
Alves: 22 sig / 0 TD
Jon Fitch
Thiago Alves
39
Sig strikes landed
33
73
Sig strikes attempted
65
70
Total strikes landed
52
2.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
282s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jon Fitch
31-7-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27