Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Rafael Dos Anjos
58%
42%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
39-22
Career record
Δ 2 pp
33-17
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Guida: 19 sig / 2 TD ·
Dos Anjos: 17 sig / 1 TD
Clay Guida
Rafael Dos Anjos
20
Sig strikes landed
23
61
Sig strikes attempted
70
45
Total strikes landed
48
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
6.1
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
230s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
45%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
39-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W2
Rafael Dos Anjos
33-17
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—