🏆 Title fight
Main
Middleweight
Anderson Silva vs Chael Sonnen
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
·Oracle Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anderson Silva
Chael Sonnen
76%
24%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
35-11
Career record
Δ 11 pp
30-15-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 5
Silva: 29 sig / 1 TD ·
Sonnen: 89 sig / 3 TD
Anderson Silva
Chael Sonnen
36
Sig strikes landed
37
93
Sig strikes attempted
68
59
Total strikes landed
53
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.1
1.0
Takedowns attempted
5.7
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
84s
Control time
292s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Anderson Silva
"The Spider"
35-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
W1
Chael Sonnen
30-15-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—