Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Roy Nelson
Junior Dos Santos
35%
65%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
34
Age
Δ 8y
26
23-14
Career record
Δ 9 pp
22-9
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nelson: 40 sig / 0 TD ·
Dos Santos: 130 sig / 1 TD
Roy Nelson
Junior Dos Santos
13
Sig strikes landed
29
32
Sig strikes attempted
79
21
Total strikes landed
30
0.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
0.7
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
30s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
8%
KO/TKO
86%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
23-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
W2
Junior Dos Santos
"Cigano"
22-9
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—