Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Hughes
Ricardo Almeida
95%
5%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
37
Age
Δ 3y
34
46-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
14-5
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Hughes: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Almeida: 10 sig / 0 TD
Matt Hughes
Ricardo Almeida
31
Sig strikes landed
34
64
Sig strikes attempted
71
48
Total strikes landed
41
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.2
0.0
Takedowns attempted
7.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
90s
Control time
238s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
45%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matt Hughes
46-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
37
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
W1
Ricardo Almeida
"Big Dog"
14-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—