Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Dustin Hazelett
Rick Story
36%
64%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
24
Age
Δ 2y
26
12-8
Career record
Δ 9 pp
20-9
L1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Hazelett: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Story: 75 sig / 3 TD
Dustin Hazelett
Rick Story
28
Sig strikes landed
38
74
Sig strikes attempted
83
41
Total strikes landed
79
1.2
Takedowns landed
2.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
7.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
178s
Control time
316s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dustin Hazelett
"McLovin"
12-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
W2
Rick Story
"The Horror"
20-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—