Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rodney Wallace
Phil Davis
38%
62%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 7"
79"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
26-16-1
Career record
Δ 21 pp
18-4
L1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wallace: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Davis: 59 sig / 3 TD
Rodney Wallace
Phil Davis
24
Sig strikes landed
31
50
Sig strikes attempted
66
54
Total strikes landed
65
1.3
Takedowns landed
3.5
3.3
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
108s
Control time
371s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rodney Wallace
"Shonuff the Master"
26-16-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W2
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
18-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—