Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Todd Brown
Tim Boetsch
62%
38%
Why
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brown: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Boetsch: 60 sig / 3 TD
Todd Brown
Tim Boetsch
36
Sig strikes landed
38
73
Sig strikes attempted
79
51
Total strikes landed
55
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
174s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Todd Brown
"Bulldog"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30