Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stefan Struve
Christian Morecraft
87%
13%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 4"
81"
22
Age
Δ 1y
24
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Struve: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Morecraft: 36 sig / 1 TD
Stefan Struve
Christian Morecraft
30
Sig strikes landed
28
63
Sig strikes attempted
53
46
Total strikes landed
46
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
137s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
33-14
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
Christian Morecraft
0-0
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24