Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Brian Stann
Mike Massenzio
60%
40%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Stann: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Massenzio: 5 sig / 5 TD
Brian Stann
Mike Massenzio
24
Sig strikes landed
38
62
Sig strikes attempted
75
34
Total strikes landed
49
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
94s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brian Stann
"All American"
12-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
Mike Massenzio
"The Master of Disaster"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28