Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Darren Elkins
Charles Oliveira
27%
73%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
26
Age
Δ 5y
21
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Elkins: 0 sig / 1 TD ·
Oliveira: 3 sig / 0 TD
Darren Elkins
Charles Oliveira
39
Sig strikes landed
33
114
Sig strikes attempted
66
50
Total strikes landed
40
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
159s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21