Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
James Irvin
Igor Pokrajac
31%
69%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
17-11
Career record
Δ 6 pp
28-14
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Irvin: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Pokrajac: 18 sig / 2 TD
James Irvin
Igor Pokrajac
24
Sig strikes landed
30
82
Sig strikes attempted
66
47
Total strikes landed
45
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
136s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
69%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
James Irvin
"The Sandman"
17-11
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Igor Pokrajac
"The Duke"
28-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—