Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
DaMarques Johnson
Matthew Riddle
37%
63%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
28
Age
Δ 4y
24
16-15
Career record
Δ 23 pp
9-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Johnson: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Riddle: 42 sig / 3 TD
DaMarques Johnson
Matthew Riddle
34
Sig strikes landed
47
82
Sig strikes attempted
93
56
Total strikes landed
55
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
94s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
DaMarques Johnson
"Darkness"
16-15
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
W1
Matthew Riddle
"Deep Waters"
9-3
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—