Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Paul Kelly
Jacob Volkmann
64%
36%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
15-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
20-7
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kelly: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Volkmann: 32 sig / 6 TD
Paul Kelly
Jacob Volkmann
27
Sig strikes landed
22
56
Sig strikes attempted
48
48
Total strikes landed
40
1.5
Takedowns landed
2.6
4.3
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
178s
Control time
219s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Paul Kelly
15-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
W1
Jacob Volkmann
"Christmas"
20-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—