Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
John Howard
Jake Ellenberger
37%
63%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
25-13
Career record
Δ 2 pp
32-15
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 3
Howard: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Ellenberger: 38 sig / 5 TD
John Howard
Jake Ellenberger
21
Sig strikes landed
19
39
Sig strikes attempted
52
29
Total strikes landed
38
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.9
3.5
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
235s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Howard
"Doomsday"
25-13
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W1
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
32-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—