Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rob Kimmons
Steve Steinbeiss
79%
21%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
30
Age
Δ 0y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kimmons: 38 sig / 4 TD ·
Steinbeiss: 85 sig / 0 TD
Rob Kimmons
Steve Steinbeiss
37
Sig strikes landed
32
71
Sig strikes attempted
78
57
Total strikes landed
46
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
162s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rob Kimmons
"The Rosedale Reaper"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Steve Steinbeiss
"The Hooligan"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29