Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Melvin Manhoef
Tatsuya Mizuno
76%
24%
Why
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Manhoef: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Mizuno: 20 sig / 2 TD
Melvin Manhoef
Tatsuya Mizuno
35
Sig strikes landed
35
64
Sig strikes attempted
75
55
Total strikes landed
51
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
171s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Melvin Manhoef
"No Mercy"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Tatsuya Mizuno
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29