Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gegard Mousasi
Jake O'Brien
94%
6%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
25
Age
Δ 1y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mousasi: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
O'Brien: 0 sig / 0 TD
Gegard Mousasi
Jake O'Brien
41
Sig strikes landed
30
77
Sig strikes attempted
71
56
Total strikes landed
45
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
169s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Gegard Mousasi
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Jake O'Brien
"Irish"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26