Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Bret Bergmark
Vagner Rocha
57%
43%
Why
37
Age
Δ 8y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bret Bergmark
Vagner Rocha
43
Sig strikes landed
49
98
Sig strikes attempted
110
59
Total strikes landed
70
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
140s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Bret Bergmark
"The Angry Hick"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
37
Blue corner
Vagner Rocha
"Ceara"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28