Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yancy Medeiros
Gareth Joseph
85%
15%
Why
23
Age
Δ 3y
26
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Yancy Medeiros
Gareth Joseph
55
Sig strikes landed
43
141
Sig strikes attempted
130
67
Total strikes landed
56
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
104s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Yancy Medeiros
16-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 6
—
Blue corner
Gareth Joseph
0-0
Career record
Age
26