Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bobby Stack
Derrick Burnsed
84%
16%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Bobby Stack
Derrick Burnsed
43
Sig strikes landed
41
100
Sig strikes attempted
98
59
Total strikes landed
73
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Bobby Stack
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Blue corner
Derrick Burnsed
0-0
Career record
Age
30