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Seth Petruzelli vs Ricardo Romero

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Seth Petruzelli
Ricardo Romero
54% 46%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
31
Age
Δ 2y
32

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Petruzelli: 30 sig / 0 TD · Romero: 19 sig / 1 TD
Seth Petruzelli
Ricardo Romero
36
Sig strikes landed
36
74
Sig strikes attempted
73
53
Total strikes landed
50
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
131s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Seth Petruzelli

"The Silverback"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner

Ricardo Romero

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32