Back to UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Brendan Schaub vs Chris Tuchscherer

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Brendan Schaub
Chris Tuchscherer
43% 57%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
27
Age
Δ 7y
35
11-5
Career record
Δ 16 pp
22-4
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Schaub: 10 sig / 0 TD · Tuchscherer: 1 sig / 0 TD
Brendan Schaub
Chris Tuchscherer
24
Sig strikes landed
15
43
Sig strikes attempted
33
30
Total strikes landed
41
-0.2
Takedowns landed
2.0
-0.4
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
-6s
Control time
209s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Brendan Schaub

"Big Brown"
11-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
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Blue corner
W1

Chris Tuchscherer

"The Crowbar"
22-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 109: Relentless
—