Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Gerald Harris
David Branch
59%
41%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Harris: 10 sig / 5 TD ·
Branch: 20 sig / 0 TD
Gerald Harris
David Branch
28
Sig strikes landed
25
78
Sig strikes attempted
60
45
Total strikes landed
35
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
131s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Gerald Harris
24-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
David Branch
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29